Issue #172: Why ICI poll finds more support for secession than others
Independent California Institute brings you this week's California news highlights
In this issue:
Californians choose self-governance, with peace
California takes on full carbon reporting, while feds blink
California tax system rated fairest
WHY OTHER SECESSION POLLSTERS SHOULD GIVE PEACE A CHANCE
What could explain the almost 30 point gap between 2 polls by the same pollster in the same month?
Both question and answer wording are key.
Last month, YouGov ran a poll we commissioned that found 58% of Californians in favor of seceding from the United States. YouGov’s Daily Questions Survey, run slightly earlier, found only 29% in favor. What could explain an almost thirty-point gap between two polls on the same subject run in the same month by the same reputable polling agency?
I’m at least 95% confident it came down to these three things. Our Independent California Poll:
didn’t have a “Not Sure” option
asked about peaceful secession
asked about being “better off,” not whether California should secede
The problem with simply asking Californians whether California should secede is that they might answer any or all of these questions:
1) Is peaceful secession possible?
2) If not, would violence be justified?
3) Would Californians be better off?
4) Would Americans outside California be better off?
5) Is secession the right thing to do?
6) Is the situation in the U.S. so bad that something extreme has to be done?
In this poll, we only asked questions 1 and 3. For question 3, we gave a clear scenario (near-term, peaceful, friendly relations with the U.S.) and a clear metric (are Californians better off?).
Coyote Marin, ICI Executive Director
CALIFORNIA PUSHES AHEAD
Study: California & Quebec as autonomous participants to the Paris climate agreement
Annie Chaloux, Hugo Séguin, & Philippe Simard, Canadian Foreign Policy Journal
“In a context where the province of Québec (Canada) and the state of California (United States of America) have committed to take ambitious actions in line with the Paris Agreement independently of their central government, this paper asks whether these federated states are truly implementing the provisions of the Paris Agreement in their own jurisdictions. This paper first describes the climate regime’s gradual expansion beyond United Nations member states to a form of “all in” multilevel and polycentric climate governance. It then identifies what the Paris Agreement expects of signatory Parties and presents case studies of Québec and California to assess whether they meet its provisions. The analysis reveals that both are indeed implementing the key provisions of the Paris Agreement in their own jurisdiction. These findings confirm that some federated states, as part of their paradiplomatic climate strategies, acts as autonomous actors within the global climate regime structured around the Paris Agreement. More broadly, these findings demonstrate the role and contribution of subnational governments in helping to bridge the effort gap to provide an adequate response to the climate emergency.”
DC is about to make California even more important
California went first, and California went further on carbon emissions reporting.
Jordan Wolman, Politico
“DID YOU FEEL IT?: Washington is about to require companies to disclose their carbon emissions, but the shock waves from Sacramento’s move to do the same are still reverberating eastward. The final SEC rule is expected to be significantly weaker than its original form — and less ambitious than California’s emissions disclosure law, authored by state Sen. Scott Wiener.
[SEC is] likely to exclude reporting requirements for emissions generated by a company’s vast value chain, which would ease the burden on big banks, auto companies and fossil fuel companies. The final rule might also grant public companies more leeway in judging how relevant their direct emissions — known as Scopes 1 and 2 — are for their investors.
That means in effect, California regulators would be the ones forcing most large companies to report their full carbon footprint.
No wonder why national and state business groups are zeroing in on California as a weaker federal rule likely raises the stakes for January’s lawsuit seeking to overturn the state’s law.”
Did you know that California has more residents than all of Canada?
Mercator
LET’S TALK TAXES
Where do California taxes rank nationally?
David Lightman, Sacramento Bee
“Among the more specific rankings of effective tax payments in California, based on households with the median US. income of $75,586:
▪ Real estate taxes, 16th lowest. average of $2,007.
▪ Vehicle property tax, 28th lowest, $172.
▪ Effective income tax rate, 11th lowest, $699.
▪ Sales and excise taxes (including gasoline), 42nd lowest, $4,399.”
Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here!
ECONOMIC NEWS
Shift in China-U.S. trade is hurting California, helping Texas
Don Lee, LA Times
“At the moment, trade economies in both Texas and California face some head winds, including a slowing U.S. economy as a result of anti-inflation efforts, plus cutbacks by retailers and other buyers that overstocked merchandise even as American consumers have been shifting their spending from stuff to services, such as travel and entertainment.”
Broadband is too costly or not available for many. So California is building its own public network.
Nerelda Moreno, LAist
“Construction is underway on a new “middle-mile” network that would make it easier and less expensive for service providers to connect to disadvantaged rural, tribal and minority urban neighborhoods. In many cases, those companies have been reluctant to provide service because it’s not seen as profitable.”
6 pros and cons of California’s $20 minimum wage for fast food workers
Vance Cariaga, Yahoo! Finance
“The new minimums were cheered by workers and worker’s rights advocates, mainly because pay raises can help affected employees deal with the state’s high consumer and housing prices. But the law has its critics as well.”
IN OTHER NEWS
Why daylight saving time is starting again in California
Prop 7, passed in 2018, allowed California to pick a time. And then the legislature never did.
Lynn La, CalMatters
“A change still requires a two-thirds majority of both the state Assembly and Senate and the governor’s signature. Permanently keeping daylight saving time also requires congressional action — and that hasn’t happened.
California doesn’t have to wait on Congress to use standard time, which is what Hawaii and most of Arizona do.
So this year Republican Sen. Roger Niello of Roseville introduced legislation to do away with daylight saving time for good and establish standard time year-round. (Westminster Republican Tri Ta is carrying a twin bill in the Assembly.)”
California Sikhs are driving a separatist movement. India calls them terrorists.
Jaweed Kaleem, LA Times
“Most Khalistan activism at the Stockton temple happens through a 17-year-old group called Sikhs for Justice, which describes itself as a human rights and education organization and runs on donations.
In the last few years, according to the group, more than a million Sikhs have participated in its referendums in London, Vancouver, Rome, Geneva, Melbourne, Australia, and San Francisco. Another vote is scheduled for March 31 in Sacramento.
The group, which administers the referendums through a third party, has said no results will be released until a vote is held in Punjab — something the Indian government would never allow.
India’s ambassador to Canada recently called the referendums “a futile effort.”
We love to hear from readers like you! Please reply to this email with suggestions for the next issue.