Issue #206: Building a Trump-proof firewall?
ICI brings you this week's news highlights
Now that the election is over, we’re moving full-speed ahead with our second Independent California Poll. This time, we’re focusing on what California’s elected officials can do to protect Californians and win greater autonomy for California.
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Say good-bye to black plastic takeout containers
Tribes push for 3 more national monuments in California
California is big!
Please, please ask anyone you know to subscribe to this newsletter and donate to our next poll. The next four years are going to be tremendously challenging for California, and we need to organize as many Californians as we can to fight back.
Remember… 58% of Californians think we’d be better off as our own country!
REALITY OF TRUMP RESISTANCE SINKING IN
Gavin Newsom has a tough needle to thread: Oppose and appease Trump at the same time
Sophia Bollag, SF Chronicle
“Three days after Donald Trump won another term as president, California Gov. Gavin Newsom described his plans to fight Trump’s agenda on a call with donors and political supporters. But even for that liberal audience, Newsom avoided saying directly that he would resist the incoming president.
“I want our president to succeed and our job, my job, is not to wake up every single day and get a crowbar and try to put it in the spokes of the wheel of the Trump administration,” he said. “I’m not naive, either. ... California is going to stand firm. We’re going to have your back.”
It was a sign that Newsom understands the precarious assignment he’s been handed as he serves out the remainder of his term under another Trump presidency: Even as he positions himself as the leader of the resistance, he must also appease the Republican president enough to keep critical funding flowing into the state.”
State of resistance? What is California’s role in the new American reality?
Wallace Baine, Santa Cruz Lookout
“There is a critical and even tragic irony that the election exposed. The Democratic Party had taken it as an article of faith that it was the party of competent governance and that the GOP was interested only in culture wars and power grabs. The 2024 election, contends Pastor, is a clear signal that voters feel otherwise.
“Aside from just the economics of high housing costs,” he said, “there’s a sense that the Democrats just can’t govern, that criminal justice reform has led to drugstores where everything is under lock and key, that the commitment to equity hasn’t extended to generating sufficient housing production. It’s about speaking to people’s everyday lived experiences, and their everyday lived experience is that inflation is a bitch, it’s hard for [young people] to buy a house. You shouldn’t have to go out and find your catalytic converter has been stolen for the third time. Nobody telling you to [defund the police] is going to get your catalytic converter back.’”
Three big ways Trump could collide with California
Karim Doumar, LA Times
“Let’s start with California’s farmers. They supported Trump, but his proposed mass deportation could decimate agricultural workforces.
Next, let’s talk about Hollywood unions, which are facing a triple threat: Trump, AI and the production slowdown. Trump’s administration could give media executives latitude to take a harder line in bargaining.
Finally, Trump says he wants to end tax rebates for EV drivers. Gov. Newsom plans to step in.”
Is anything safe from Trump?
Alex Nieves, Camille von Kaenel, Blanca Begert and Wes Venteicher, Politico
“Here’s our look at four segments of California’s climate economy you should be tracking once Trump takes office in January:
High-speed rail: No project is likely more imperiled than California’s long-maligned high speed rail line, which is relying on billions of dollars in federal funding to complete its first portion of track — a 171-mile Central Valley stretch — that is someday supposed to connect Los Angeles to San Francisco.
EV charging: California’s efforts to build electric vehicle charging infrastructure are far more insulated from Trump.
Hydrogen: The picture is uncertain for zero- and low-carbon hydrogen, which the Biden administration set aside $7 billion to prop up with “hubs” across the country.
Offshore wind: California is poised to purchase enough offshore wind to power more than 7 million homes — but not if Trump can help it. The incoming president has said he would end offshore wind development “on Day 1,” according to our POLITICO’s E&E News colleague Benjamin Storrow. Trump could halt or slow the required federal permits to build the projects. Industry leaders are worried about that prospect.”
ICYMI: How to Achieve Local Autonomy
A special report by our executive director for Democracy Local imagines how California could negotiate special autonomous status within the United States.
Excerpts from the report:
Fully 68% of Californians believe that California would be better off if California negotiated a special autonomous status within the U.S., according to a poll that my think tank, the Independent California Institute, commissioned from YouGov earlier this year…. Why might Californians want more independence from the federal government?
The federal government has so little accountability to California voters that a major presidential candidate can outright declare he’s OK with us dying in a wildfire. It’s nice sometimes to believe that we live under an ingenious federal system devised by wise, benevolent men, but face it, Californians, you’re a second-class citizen in a second-rate democracy.
In short, a Nation-State Caucus could inject a dose of reality into California politics. Rather than selling Californians on “leading the nation” from within a federal system that’s stacked against us in nearly every way, the Nation-State Caucus could focus on doing a better job protecting Californians from that system. Californians should get a chance to lead ourselves before we take on the burden of leading Americans.
How big is California, really?
Politically, California is just one state (for now), but economically it is a world powerhouse, the 5th largest economy in the world.
Just for perspective, the states in blue below have economies smaller than the San Francisco Bay Area, which is shown in red:
California is big. Next week: population.
HOW HARD WILL TRUMP HAMMER HIT CALIFORNIA?
California’s budget is ‘roughly balanced,’ but deficits could grow under Trump
Alexei Koseff, CalMatters
“With tax revenues from high-earning Californians rebounding in recent months, the Legislature’s nonpartisan fiscal adviser projects that the state budget remains “roughly balanced,” but spending growth is expected to drive increasing deficits in the years ahead.
That could make it difficult for Gov. Gavin Newsom to pursue ideas that he has proposed in recent months to fight back against a second Trump administration and reboot California’s sluggish economy during his final two years in office.
In its annual fiscal outlook, issued today to prepare lawmakers for the upcoming budget process, the Legislative Analyst’s Office estimated that California will face a $2 billion deficit next year, a potential gap that could be resolved with minor solutions — and one that Legislative Analyst Gabriel Petek repeatedly warned leaves no room for new programs.”
Another take: Maybe we should get rid of the U.S. Department of Education
Rick Miller, EdSource
”At its heart, what Trump’s really proposing is a hollowing out of the department’s founding mission — not a true decentralization of power to states, but a reimagining of federal oversight as a tool for ideological control instead of a protection for our nation’s most vulnerable.
But here’s the paradox: Without a Department of Education and federal resources, there’s less leverage to enforce his ideological agenda. As a result, we may be in a bizarre quandary of having to choose between these two opposite visions. Given the choice between a Department of Education that no longer champions equity and no department at all, perhaps it’s time to consider the latter.
The plan, as I understand it, is to move higher ed funding (Pell Grants and student loans) and education research to other agencies while providing equity-driven K-12 federal funds as block grants to be spent however states want.
In California, the Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF) ensures that schools serving students with the greatest needs — low-income students, English learners and foster youth — receive additional resources. With LCFF, we’ve built a system that both works and meets this moment (though we may also need to codify our clear commitment to special education). As someone who has spent decades in education policy, I don’t say this lightly — in fact, it breaks my heart. But this moment calls for different thinking. The U.S. Department of Education has been a force for good in countless lives. But it should not stand if it’s dictated by ideological agendas. Quality education for all children must remain our North Star in California, because when we center our most vulnerable students, we all succeed.”
Donald Trump vs California: 5 ways the president-elect could challenge state policies
Andrew Sheeler and William Melhado, Sacramento Bee
“During Donald Trump’s first term and throughout this year’s campaign, California leaders and their policies were often the source of the former president’s rage. Trump has blasted the state’s rising cost of living, denigrated its support for immigrant communities and railed against its high homelessness rates. Trump has made direct statements about superseding a California voting law, blocking state environmental regulations and withholding federal funds from disaster victims. With a second term, Trump could act on some of those threats once he takes office January 20.”
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California farmers were big Trump backers. They may be on collision course over immigrant deportation
Jessica Garrison and Rebecca Plevin, LA Times
“Trump has pledged to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants across the country, including, he has said in recent days, rounding up people and putting them in newly built detention camps.
If any such effort penetrated California’s heartland — where half the fruits and vegetables consumed in the U.S. are grown — it almost surely would decimate the workforce that farmers rely on to plant and harvest their crops. At least half of the state’s 162,000 farmworkers are undocumented, according to estimates from the federal Department of Labor and research conducted by UC Merced. Without sufficient workers, food would rot in the fields, sending grocery prices skyrocketing.
If the Trump administration conducts mass deportation efforts in California’s heartland, farm contractors and other experts said it would decimate the workforce
And yet, farmers are not railing in protest. Many say they expect the president will support their workforce needs, either through a robust legalization program for workers already here or by leaving farms be and focusing enforcement elsewhere.
Some are also pushing the government to make it easier for them to import temporary guest workers under the H-2A visa program, which allows farms to hire seasonal agricultural workers when the domestic labor supply falls short.”
GETTING READY FOR 2025
L.A. prepares to take on Trump 2.0
Lindsey Holden and Melanie Mason, Politico
“It’s been in the works for more than a year, but [LA Mayor Karen] Bass moved to expedite it after Trump’s election, setting up a showdown with the president-elect who posted on Truth Social yesterday his plans to use the military for mass deportations of immigrants in the country illegally.
Former Mayor Eric Garcetti issued an executive directive with similar elements during Trump’s first term. In 2017, then California Gov. Jerry Brown signed a statewide sanctuary law barring state and local law enforcement from taking part in immigration enforcement and restricting cooperation with federal officials. The Supreme Court in 2020 declined to review a lower court ruling allowing the law.
The current ordinance’s co-author Nithya Raman said Garcetti’s directive and internal Los Angeles Police Department policies currently shape the city’s relationship with federal immigration agencies.
Councilmembers said the city needs the ordinance to ensure Los Angeles’ large immigrant population feels safe calling police to report crimes and other emergencies. About 35 percent of the city’s population is foreign-born, according to Census data.”
‘What’s going to happen to my kids’: California prepares to resist Trump deportations
Wendy Fry, CalMatters
“For months, advocates have been planning ways to fight back.
“He doesn’t own our states,” said Naureen Shah, deputy director of government affairs at the American Civil Liberties Union. “And our states will be the frontline in the defense of our civil liberties and our civil rights.”
California, which has the country’s largest immigrant population, already has strong state laws to protect immigrant communities from mass deportations, although not as strong as Oregon and Illinois, according to the Immigrant Legal Resource Center.
Those two states have comprehensive laws restricting transfers of people to ICE, whereas California state prison employees regularly contact the federal immigration enforcement agency about inmates in their custody, including United States citizens, public records show. Immigrant Legal Resource Center, a national nonprofit that provides legal training and does pro-immigrant policy work in California and Texas, estimates 70 to 75% of ICE arrests in the interior of the U.S. are handoffs from another law enforcement agency, such as local jails or state or federal prisons.”
Opinion: The best way California can prepare for Trump? Fix its state government
Bob Stonebrook, CalMatters
“A far better and proactive approach — and one that would significantly increase the benefit to all Californians over the long haul — is to improve the effectiveness of our state government.
The results of this year’s elections have spoken volumes about what we have become as a nation and what is most important to our citizens. Most Americans wake up before the sun rises every morning, toss back a cup of coffee and bust their tails for the next 45 years. They work tirelessly for their families, and they want to be treated fairly and objectively. They want to feel safe and accumulate a small measure of economic security for their children.
Basic governance creates the space for attaining those modest aspirations.
In 1969, Peter Drucker, the influential management consultant, author and educator, noted in the now-defunct Public Interest journal that the greatest factor in our “disenchantment” with government is that government has not performed.”
Democrats safeguarding democracy: A blueprint for blue states to prepare for Trump 2.0
Indivisible
“If you’re in a place where your Democratic elected officials are already making moves to resist, you might think there’s no role for you. But remember:
Many politicians talk a good game, but our job is to ensure they walk the walk. Even if your governor is mentioned here as taking good first steps, they need to follow through.
Taking on these fights involves real risk—MAGA will retaliate. Your elected officials will need you behind them to stay brave.
Elected officials often only hear from constituents when they’re upset. It might sound small, but a “thank you” or a word of encouragement can go a long way. Cheer them on, and be ready to stand by them when the going gets tough. Blue states can act now, and they don’t have to wait until Trump’s policies take effect. This is the time to show our leaders that we’re behind them, ensuring they feel our support as they take on these battles.
If you live in one of the 15 Democratic trifectas, send your Governor a message.”
California prepares to fortify state’s abortion access: ‘Fight for what’s right’
Sam Levin, The Guardian
“Mia Bonta, a Democratic assemblymember, who chairs the state assembly’s health committee, said she will be introducing a package of bills next month that seeks to expand access to birth control pills, protect emergency abortion care at hospitals and enhance maternal health in the state.
“When the federal government and president is moving to a motto of ‘your body, my choice,’ I think it’s very important we clarify in the state of California what our bottom line is,” Bonta said in an interview on Tuesday. “California will continue to be a sanctuary state, to push for the recognition of women’s autonomy and our bodily autonomy and to prioritize through our healthcare policy, access to full reproductive care.”
Bonta will put her bills forward on 2 December, the start of the “Trump-proofing” emergency legislative session called by the state’s governor, Gavin Newsom.
Since 2022, abortion rights are enshrined in California’s constitution and the state in recent years has established itself as a sanctuary for women from other states seeking the procedure. Bonta’s proposals seek to further that trend, she said. Since the supreme court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in its 2022 Dobbs decision, states have been free to set policy, with 21 banning or restricting the procedure. Californians in 2022 passed a measure enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution.”
Native Americans press Biden to designate three new national monuments in California
Lila Seidman, LA Times
“The lands being sought for monument status encompass more than 1.2 million acres, the largest being the proposed Chuckwalla national monument on more than 620,000 acres stretching from the Coachella Valley near the Salton Sea to the Colorado River. Backers led by the Torres Martinez Desert Cahuilla Indians and other tribes also want neighboring Joshua Tree National Park expanded by nearly 18,000 acres.
In addition, the Fort Yuma Quechan Indian Tribe is seeking to establish the 390,000-acre Kw’tsán national monument on nearby desert lands in the southeast corner of California, abutting the Colorado River and hugging the border with Mexico. And the Pit River Nation is requesting designation for roughly 200,000 acres of their ancestral territory and spiritual sites in Sáttítla, or the Medicine Lake Highlands, which encompasses striking volcanic formations in Northern California.
Separately, some environmentalists are pushing Biden to set aside 1.4 million acres between Sequoia-Kings Canyon and Yosemite national parks — dubbed the Range of Light national monument.“
CALIFORNIA’S ENVIRONMENT
What the 2024 election means for California’s air and climate
Bill Magavern, Capitol Weekly
“On the plus side, voters overwhelmingly approved a $10 billion climate bond to help the state prepare for a hotter, drier, more flammable world. On the other hand, even that large investment will be inadequate, because the return of Donald Trump to the White House magnifies all the threats that make the bond necessary, increases the likelihood of poisoned air and water and runaway climate change, and destroys the hope that the federal government will help California navigate those challenges in the next four years.
As of November 13, Proposition 4, which authorizes $10 billion in bonds for water, wildfire, conservation, offshore wind and other climate programs, was carrying over 59% of the statewide vote, a resounding victory in a year when many commentators are opining that the electorate shifted to the right.”
One study from earlier this year found that clinicians with experience reading stroke imaging are still able to diagnose occlusions “with higher accuracy than RapidAI software in a real‐world setting.” The tool is used by practitioners to supplement — not replace — their expertise.
Other forms of AI-assisted image processing are under development and in advanced research phases.”
Black plastic takeout boxes are a staple of the Bay Area food scene. Can we actually get rid of them?
Soleil Ho, SF Chronicle
“As a recent spate of stories and studies have asserted, many black plastic products, including takeout containers, toy components and kitchen utensils, include elements recycled from electronic waste, including heavy metals like mercury and lead and a flame retardant chemical called decaBDE. High exposure to decaBDE, which has been found in major concentrations in hundreds of household items, is proven to disrupt the endocrine system and lead to diseases like diabetes, cause infertility issues and increase the likelihood of dying from cancer by 300%.
Black plastic containers are sold by the hundreds and thousands by wholesale restaurant supply stores that advertise their safety and eco-friendliness. Online store Restaurant Supply Drop’s listing for the containers says, “Reheat and store food in the same container.” The Webstaurant Store’s copy: “Both the container and lid are recyclable and simple to clean.” The recycling aspect is definitely greenwashing: Black plastic is too difficult for recycling plants to sort mechanically, so it tends to go straight to the landfill.”
Unstoppable invasion: How did mussels sneak into California, despite decades of state shipping rules?
Alastair Bland, CalMatters
“After the recent discovery of a destructive mussel in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, some experts say California officials have failed to effectively enforce laws designed to protect waterways from invaders carried in ships’ ballast water.
A state law enacted 20 years ago has required California officials to inspect 25% of incoming ships and sample their ballast water before it’s discharged into waterways. But the tests didn’t begin until two years ago — after standards for conducting them were finally set — and testing remains rare. State officials have sampled the ballast water of only 16 vessels out of the roughly 3,000 likely to have emptied their tanks nearshore.
Experts say stronger regulations are needed, as well as better enforcement.”
Can California plan for equitable growth in the face of climate migration?
Sarit Del Spina and Tim Robustelly, New America
“Wildfires, sea-level rise and coastal erosion, flooding, extreme heat and drought, even tropical storms. California has it all, and is among the U.S. states experiencing some of the first and worst impacts of climate change. One in five residents statewide are now at-risk of flooding, and one-quarter of Californians live in areas considered high risk for catastrophic fire.
Already, massive wildfires and other natural disasters are leading to sudden, large-scale displacement throughout the state. After the 2018 Camp Fire in the Sierra Nevada foothills, for example, roughly 20,000 displaced persons quickly relocated to Chico, exacerbating the city’s rental housing shortage and causing home prices to skyrocket. And earlier this year, thousands were displaced by floods throughout the Central Valley and elsewhere. For rural communities and farmworkers, especially, housing insecurity and displacement were exacerbated by citizenship issues and persistent financial struggles.
Displacement will only intensify in the coming decades: perhaps Californians will continue relocating to neighboring or nearby counties in the aftermath of disasters. Or maybe climate change will push them into inland cities such as Riverside and Sacramento. Regardless, these population shifts will have profound economic, social, and environmental implications. The places that receive an influx of climate migrants could very likely experience a rise in housing insecurity and increased social and economic vulnerability.”
California already has a Green New Deal. Here’s how it works
Justin Worland, Time Magazine
“In California, the spirit of the Green New Deal has been alive for years, if not described in those exact words.
Just as the Green New Deal is meant to be more of an umbrella for an aggressive approach to fighting climate change on multiple fronts, California does not have a silver bullet on its climate policy. Instead, officials in the deep-blue state have done everything from building high-speed rail to funding for clean energy research and development to rules requiring green initiatives that aid low-income communities. All of those programs are in service of the state’s overall target, set last year, of hitting net-zero emissions by 2045.
Importantly, this portfolio of programs has paid dividends in the state’s bigger push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Last year, the state said that it had reduced its emissions to 1990 levels, achieving that goal much sooner than the state’s original 2020 target. Californians emit less on a per capita basis than any state except New York, according to Energy Information Administration data, even though many of them commute over long distances.”
IN OTHER NEWS
Californians who left for remote work have shown 'signs of returning'
Suzanne Blake, Newsweek
“California was the second most popular state for Americans to move to in 2022, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. The report found California moves made up 9.4 percent of interstate moves nationally that year.
"Domestic migration that intensified during the pandemic is showing a return to pre-pandemic trends for location choice," Jessica Lautz, NAR Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research, told Newsweek. "Californians who flocked to other states with remote work flexibility are showing some signs of returning."
In the 2024 report, California did not see high net migration numbers, according to the NAR. Affordability was cited as a possible issue, especially as remote work continues to be available in many job sectors. However, the job market and the weather in the state has continued to draw people to set up roots.”
California retains No. 1 ranking for international student enrollment as concerns grow over Trump
Jaweed Kaleem, LA Times
“The largest share of international students attended institutions in California, the report said, where USC, UC Berkeley, UC San Diego and UCLA were the biggest draws, and Chinese students strongly outnumbered Indians.
But under a second Trump administration, education and labor experts question the future climate and availability of such record-setting numbers of visas for foreign students — including Chinese researchers who have become a mainstay at several University of California campuses.”